![]() This trend stems from outdated voter outreach models and a perceived lack of sincerity from candidates who do not visit a community until election season. Low midterm election turnout - particularly for Latinos - has long been an issue, Romero said. “A lot of people working in Latino communities across the state are trying to grapple with not only lower turnout, but why,” Romero said. Mindy Romero, director of USC’s Center for Inclusive Democracy, called the 2022 midterm election turnout for California Latinos “deeply disappointing.” She said, unlike other states, California saw a reduction in turnout compared to 2018. While Latinos make up almost 40% of the state’s adult population, they only account for 22% of likely voters, according to an August 2022 report from the Public Policy Institute of California. “But now when you see a rightward shift, some alarm bells go off.” “Democrats just never had to worry about it, because the Republicans have never been a viable alternative,” Madrid said. Madrid added that Democrats also need to invest money to fix the “Latino turnout problem.” He said Latino lawmakers, in particular, have for too long focused on issues that won’t help solve the economic concerns of the community. 187 era, where Democrats will need to improve their economic agenda to drive the Latino electorate. ![]() Madrid believes Latinos in the Golden State are entering a post-Prop. “One of the great ironies of California is that it prides itself on being sort of the preview of coming attractions, but in the largest demographic shift in the history of the country, California is behind the rest of the country.” “It is more pronounced outside of California, but it is now finally happening,” Madrid said. The measure is regarded for setting a decades-long anti-Republican narrative.īut that may soon change, according to a Republican Latino voting trends expert Mike Madrid. Most notably, Proposition 187 in 1994 sought to ban immigrants from receiving social services, health care and education. Between 20, Trump garnered 37% support to Joe Biden’s 63%.Ĭalifornia Latinos were regarded as the exception to the trend, reflecting the legacy of the anti-immigrant rhetoric Republicans employed in the 1990s. Latino support for Republicans has fluctuated over the years, but a rightward trend became apparent during the Trump administration. California Latino vote no longer a certainty for Democrats? More conclusive numbers on the Latino vote will be available in the coming months, with the release of the precinct and individual data. “There’s a long history in American politics that shows that when a minority group starts to increase in presence, it can cause whites to vote more conservative,” Barreto said. This would mean that white voters in a congressional district could result in a rightward shift.Ĭase in point: A district heavily composed of Latinos does not necessarily mean they are the majority voting. Matt Barreto, president of BSP Research in Los Angeles, which studies Latino voting trends, also cautioned against making definitive statements about what the data says about how Latinos as a group are voting.īarreto said historically, in areas with a growing Latino population, white voters will turn out to vote at higher rates. Regardless, Holtz said the report reveals Democrats will need to improve at persuading Latino voters as 2024 approaches. Holtz warned against making broad conclusions about the Latino vote, since the report only examines voting at the geographic level. even with an insane amount of investments and those that they are turning out, they’re clearly not persuading.” ![]() “California Democrats have a major challenge on their hands,” Holtz said. Lucas Holtz, political analyst and author of the report, said the research differentiates midterm and presidential election results as they are “ideologically varied” as midterms are generally known for receiving less turnout. John Duarte, R-Turlock, triumphed over Democratic competitors in close November races respectively. The report highlighted the Central Valley’s 13th and 22nd Congressional Districts, where conservatives Rep. Most of the districts were located in Central and Southern California. In California’s 14 Latino-majority districts, for example, where a Democrat and a Republican both made the 2022 ballot, 10.8% more voters swung Republican from 2020 to 2022, compared to 7.1% from 2018 to 2022, the data shows.
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